Y2K: An OverviewUpdated: April 1999
The Millenium. The dawn of a new century or a time of disaster? The press coverage of Y2K and the popular notions of what will happen then scarcely bring comfort. If it isn't another report of all leaves cancelled for this or that emergency service then it's a report of how the global economy will collapse in a flood of panic selling or how this or that fringe group will try and jumpstart Armageddon. Media hype aside, there really is a problem. The Y2K problem, in case you have been living on Mars the past six months, is that some computers, computer chips and programs cannot handle dates after December 31, 1999. They variously report a year expressed as "00" as being 1900 or the more clever ones, realizing that there were no computers in 1900, will say it is 1980. This will cause these systems to malfunction when performing any date-related task. Experts cannot agree on what percentage of systems will fail and estimates from responsible sources still vary widely. These systems are not only based in easily accessible computers, but are also "embedded" in systems and devices that are not accessible; encased in concrete or down a deep hole or on the ocean floor or any combination thereof. A non-compliant chip may be part of an overlooked circuit board handling some routine but necessary task in almost any automated process on the planet. As if this "Big Bump" weren't enough, the year 2000 has another distinguishing feature: it is a leap year. A year ending in "00" is a leap year only once every 400 years so we can look forward to a "Baby Bump" when some systems which passed January 1, 2000 without problem choke on February 29 - March 1, 2000. So what does this mean? The picture is still unclear. So let's start with some basic facts of life. We are city dwellers. We do not grow our own food or draw our own water. The majority of us rely on a combination of coal-generated electricity and imported fuel oil for our heat. Our disease-carrying wastes are taken away by a complex maze of pipes and pumps and vehicles. We depend upon an intricate network of economic activity for our income to purchase the necessities of life and of course the necessities themselves. Computers are interwoven into every aspect of our lives; one source estimates that each one of us crosses paths with some seventy microprocessors before lunch each day. Some of these are going to fail, with varying consequences. This is the bad news. The good news is that much progress has been made as different parts of our society rush to make their equipment compliant. Most system-critical parts of our society's infrastructure are either now compliant or in an advanced state of becoming compliant and are posting their progress reports to their web sites. Electric companies and financial services companies such as banks have made particularly good progress, in no small part due to the incredibly high cost of not being Y2K compliant. Here in Nova Scotia for example, NS Power was the North American leader in testing their equipment and have successfully run their generator plants set to year 2000 dates for extended periods. Government progress in becoming compliant is not quite as inspiring, though some headway is being made. Federal government departments appear to be doing well, but progress in at least four Nova Scotia Provincial departments: Health, Labour, Community Services and Natural Resources is still lagging. Health alone is budgeted for almost three quarters of this province's Y2K budget of $80 million and the province's own Auditor General has expressed skepticism about whether N.S. will be able to make the deadline. Since the deadline isn't going to be moved back, the prudent advice is to make your plans accordingly. The N.S. Provincial Y2K web site is updated at the end of each month and it is a very good idea to keep an eye on it. Currently two N.S. provincial departments - Community Services and Natural Resources - have stated deadlines of December 31, 1999 for making their equipment compliant. The Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) has now put their Y2K information online albeit in an unwieldy and very graphics intensive form: a slide show consisting of some 21 different pages of slides. They report that they now have some 200 people working directly on the problem and a budget of $5.25 million. Their program of "triage", identifying and remedying the most critical systems first is the recommended one for any organization to be taking. In the case of HRM, critical systems are listed as 911 and Dispatch, Emergency Measures Organization, Fire and Police services, waste water and storm water, traffic flow and snow/ice removal, core financial processes, Aerotech water, and solid waste. The reported deadline for this first phase, estimated by HRM to cover about three quarters of their Y2K problem, is May 31, 1999. So what can you as an individual do? The expert advice remains unchanged from two months ago. While failure of basic services, particularly any extended failures are now considered less likely, no responsible source of information is discounting the notion entirely and most are likening the situation to preparing for a winter storm: if it turns out to be less than expected, great, but if not then the basic preparations listed below will help you when it counts the most.
The first order of business is to think of what preparations you can make ahead of time. There is no cause
for alarm or panic, but some simple precautions can make things easier in case of trouble.
In the months between now and the end of the year more information on the extent of this problem will become available. It is very likely that any disruptions in basic services, should they occur at all, will be of short duration. Problems are made to be solved.
You may direct comments or suggestions about this feature to: Andrew D. Wright, au141@chebucto.ns.ca
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